The gentle giants are here, active and, as always, playing their special role in making Maui a place only the luckiest get to call home.

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The Los Angeles Times reported the following:
 
Home sale prices in Southern California showed fresh strength in January, bouncing 8.6% from the same month one year earlier — a period when the market was inundated with steeply discounted bank-owned properties.
 
This is undoubtedly good news, but it isn't all the news.
 
But compared with a particularly strong December, the median fell 6.1% to $271,500 in January, ending eight consecutive months of price appreciation
 
This is largely a function of the change in "mix" with the lower priced Inland Empire being even more active in January.  This report must be viewed as good news with apples to apples prices increasing while unemployment remains high.
 
For more details, contact us!
 
 
In a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, economists are mildly more optimistic than they were a year ago.
 

The forecasters currently expect the U.S. gross domestic product to grow 2.70% per year, adjusted for inflation, over the next 10 years, up from 2.56% in the survey conducted a year earlier. Growth in productivity, or output per hour of work, is now expected to average 2.0%, up from the previous 1.9%. forecast (and much slower than recent spectacularly fast productivity growth.) Investors will fare better than the economists feared during the depths of the recession in the first quarter of 2008. They revised up their forecasts of the return on financial assets, with the exception of three-month Treasury bills. The forecasters see the S&P 500 returning 7.00% per year over the next decade, up from 6.50%, and 10-year Treasuries returning 4.95%, up from 4.85%. The forecasters expect that three-month Treasury bills will return 3.0% per year over the next 10 years.

Earlier this week the Maui news published a story discussing the issues facing commercial properties on Maui. We’d like to address that article and contrast some of the points made with the reality of the live-work units at Kai Ani Village.

The vacancy rate for retail, office and industrial space is estimated to have doubled to about 5 or 10 percent, depending on the type of retail center and the location, while the poor economy keeps typically free-spending tourists away, said Grant Howe, Commercial Properties of Maui LLC founder and managing general partner…Hit extra hard these days are out-of-the-way shopping centers that never performed that well in the first place, the experts said. There’s also added anxiety about a handful of retail centers that went ahead and opened in the midst of the downturn, with only a few tenants lined up, they said.

We should first note that a 5-10% vacancy rate is only disturbing given Maui’s recent past. That is a routine number on the mainland in ordinary times. It is also important to note that this data is an island-wide assessment and includes all qualities of locations from the industrial parts of Kahului and Wailuku to Lahina and Wailea. Kai Ani Village’s location at the corner of one of Kihei’s busiest intersections is difficult to beat with frontage and signage on South Kihei Road. In addition, the residential component of the live-work condominiums separates Kai Ani Village from a more ordinary commercial space.

[Ed] Bello and others said that Maui is in a unique situation when it comes to the commercial real estate market, in that there is a finite amount of space for development, which will eventually help landlords when the economy recovers. It is an island, Bello noted.

Some communities have only a few acres of undeveloped land zoned commercial, Bello said. Maui has become a relatively mature market, he said. The building boom days, with the exception of homes, appears to be over, he said.

These are critical points. Maui is unlikely to ever throw the floodgates for development open to create large amounts of new commercial projects. And whatever is allowed is unlikely to be permitted along major existing commercial corridors in Kihei. So the exceptional Kai Ani Village location, across the street from a supermarket and health care facilities and only short walks from restaurants and theaters and health clubs etc. makes it extremely unlikely that such a live-work offering can be replicated in South Maui.

[Rick Woodford] said the shopping centers near the resorts in South and West Maui tend to be more stable…Wailuku and parts of Kahului are tougher markets.

And Kai Ani Village sits directly in the stability sweet spot.

In short Kai Ani Village is an obvious exception to many of the concerns expressed in the article. Come and see Kai Ani Village and you too will be convinced.

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Want a shorter commute?? How about upstairs to downstairs?

Live/work residences are becoming increasingly popular as more and more people start small businesses and look to save expenses.

Though the concept harkens back to days when the corner grocer lived in an apartment above the store, today?s condo hybrids allow professionals, entrepreneurs, artists and others to own a space that?s well-suited to serve both home and work needs.

Live/work residences, such as those at Kai Ani Village, offer modern, at-home work spaces specially designed to meet the needs of professionals and entrepreneurs.? In addition to providing a great street-front, business-building location, they also save the owners fuel and leased office space costs.

There?s little doubt that the live/work concept is growing.

In 2000, U.S. census found nearly 4.2 million people age 16 or older worked at home most days during the week, up from 3.4 million in 1990. ?That 23.5% increase over 10 years almost doubled the growth rate of the overall work force. ?The Census Bureau?s most recent estimate, made from community surveys conducted in 2003, raised the number of home-based workers to 4.5 million ? an increase of slightly more than 7% in only three years.

Live/work residences like those at Kai Ani Village offer prospective buyers a range of possible floor plans to help them visualize possible uses ranging from a contemporary office with reception area to a small retail shop to a service-based small business.

Kai Ani Village?s live/work units offer professionals, such as attorneys, accountants or writers, the opportunity to have offices with separate entrances on the street and their living quarters above.? Plus, the downstairs work space is easily adaptable and accessible from the street level and the garage, making it easy for residents, guests and customers to come and go.

Artists and photographers requiring studio space, salespeople and home-business owners who need a combination of work and living space, are all prime candidates for live/work residences.

One of the most common uses for a live/work space is an artist?s studio.? Artistic endeavors such as sculpture, painting and installations require large workspaces, but the artist may want to live close to the project.? A well-designed live/work space such as those in Kai Ani Village provide artists with both home amenities and the space necessary to create and store finished works securely.

In today?s economy, the number of people looking for new careers makes live/work spaces attractive options for those who may not have considered them before. ?A professional who once had an office, and has clients they still need to see, needs dedicated office space, not just a room in their home.? The hybrid units also eliminate the need to lease costly retail space for their business.

In addition, working in a vibrant neighborhood such as Kiehi, Maui, Hawaii gives business owners a new community with new clientele.? The close proximity to other small business owners also offers fresh ideas to grow a business.

But can young professionals, often cited as the likely target market for live-work condos, afford to purchase them? ?A study of affordability prepared by The Live/Work Institute, a nonprofit organization in Oakland, Calif., says yes.

An owner of a live/work unit saves money by not paying separate rents for living space and work space, as well as reducing transportation costs, according to the institute.

And with sustainable living becoming more in vogue, and with gas prices not expected to drop substantially, experts say live/work units will only grow in popularity because they combine personal living space and professional workspace in such a way that neither is compromised.

Jan 30

CO’S!

The picture is a bit fuzzy, but that is the Certificate of Occupancy for Unit 3-102 and identical documents now line the walls of all the units in Building 3 at Kai Ani Village.
 
Come and see us for a private tour!

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One of the significant developments in Maui real estate we ascertained over the last eighteen months or so is how flexible buyers have become. It used to be there were (using shorthand) Wailea people and Kapalua ™ people and North Shore people etc. Folks had already focused on a specific part of the island or a specific neighborhood or complex and wouldn't consider buying outside it. That point of view has really changed. More and more in 2009 and today potential buyers are seeking value first and are showing more flexibility the neighborhood or area they will consider. In our vernacular, buyers have become "deal hounds." For sellers this means your property is no longer just competing with the one down the street. Now you are competing with other parts of the island as well and must show a value in that context to obtain significant interest. For buyers this means your Realtors must have broader knowledge than ever before.  

The first report on fourth quarter GDP came in at a robust 5.7%.
 
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE).  Imports, which
are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private
inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that
were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.
So why didn't the financial markets respond more positively? Because 3.4% was due to declining inventories, viewed as a one time event. So most think the more useful GDP number is the 2.3% after the inventory adjustment. Not a great growth rate, but far better than earlier 2009 results.
 
What is the impact on Maui real estate? Not much directly, but economic growth is always good news.
There have been a couple recent reports regarding national home sales.
  • Existing Homes Sales declined significantly from November to December as the Federal Tax Incentive ended
    • Compared to December 2008, national home sales increased 15%.
    • Sale prices increased 1.5% from last December
  • Standard and Poors released their Case Shiller Index for November
    • The attached chart shows that pricing seem to be stabilizing
    • Nationally prices are now at late 2003 levels
In our view, most of this news is modestly positive. For details, contact us.

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